Metabolic markers jointly link to higher multimorbidity risk
In the UK Biobank, participants with high AIP and low eGDR had a hazard ratio of 5.24 for multimorbidity compared with the low-AIP and high-eGDR group.
Research Square
In a prospective study analyzing 394,483 UK Biobank participants and 8,671 participants from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, researchers evaluated two metabolic indicators against incident cardio-renal-metabolic multimorbidity. The analysis, detailed in a preprint, assessed the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) alongside the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR), which reflects insulin sensitivity.
Over the follow-up period, 23,289 UK Biobank participants (5.9%) and 1,185 CHARLS participants (13.7%) developed multimorbidity. In the UK Biobank, high AIP and low eGDR each linked to higher risk, with fully adjusted hazard ratios of 2.31 and 2.54. Participants presenting with both high AIP and low eGDR had a hazard ratio of 5.24 compared with those having low AIP and high eGDR. Adding both metrics to a basic model shifted the C-index from 0.8033 to 0.8459.
Why it matters
Cardio-renal-metabolic multimorbidity represents a substantial burden in aging populations. Evaluating atherogenic dyslipidemia alongside insulin resistance may clarify how combined metabolic disruptions drive multi-organ decline over time.
Caveats
This work is an observational preprint that has not undergone peer review. The authors caution that the exploratory prediction improvements require additional calibration and external validation before clinical application.
The paper
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Yuwen Shangguan, Qiuhan Chen, Zhengqiu Zhang, Qiang Tu, Zhenhao Lin, 匡洪宇, Changqing Yu, Jingbo Zhang,People's Hospital of Bishan District
Research Square · 29 Sep 2026 · Preprint, not peer-reviewed