Metabolic indices predict cardiometabolic multimorbidity
TyG-WHtR tracked incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity with a hazard ratio of 3.18 in a Chinese cohort and showed consistent performance alongside ICMRS in English adults.
Research Square
In a preprint analyzing older adults from China and the United Kingdom, researchers tested whether composite metabolic indices predict incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity. The study examined 8,682 participants from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and 2,422 from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), tracking 1,471 and 540 new multimorbidity cases, respectively. Investigators assessed five indices combining glucose-lipid metabolism and obesity phenotypes: TyG-WHtR, TyG-BRI, AIP-WHtR, AIP-BRI, and the integrated cardiometabolic risk score (ICMRS). In CHARLS, all five indices were associated with incident multimorbidity, led by TyG-WHtR (hazard ratio 3.18, 95% CI 2.70–3.74). In ELSA, four indices showed significant associations, but AIP-BRI did not. Overall, TyG-WHtR and ICMRS showed the most consistent performance across cohorts, though associations were stronger in CHARLS than in ELSA.
Why it matters
Cardiometabolic multimorbidity reflects the progressive accumulation of metabolic and vascular dysfunction during aging. Finding reliable composite indices that function across diverse ethnic and national populations could improve early risk stratification before multiple chronic conditions develop.
Caveats
The findings come from an observational preprint that has not yet undergone peer review. Furthermore, the magnitude and consistency of the associations varied substantially between the two cohorts.
The paper
Zhengzhou Central Hospital
Research Square · 28 Sep 2026 · Preprint, not peer-reviewed