China faces $6.45 trillion kidney disease burden through 2060
A modeling study projects a cumulative GDP loss of INT $6.45 trillion alongside substantial increases in prevalence across mainland China from 2025 to 2060.
Research Square
In mainland China, researchers projected the clinical and economic trajectory of chronic kidney disease across 31 provinces from 2025 to 2060. The preprint integrated Bayesian age-period-cohort models based on Global Burden of Disease 2023 data with cost estimates from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.
The model projects that age-standardized incidence and mortality rates will remain relatively stable, while overall prevalence increases substantially. Age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rates are projected to decline, driven by fewer years of life lost even as years lived with disability rise. The cumulative gross domestic product loss attributable to chronic kidney disease is projected to reach INT $6.45 trillion, or 0.40% of total gross domestic product, with an estimated cumulative per capita loss of INT $5,594.
Why it matters
Chronic kidney disease is a major age-associated pathology whose shifting burden reflects population aging and an expanding period of late-life disability.
Caveats
The findings depend on macroeconomic and epidemiological forecasting models rather than direct observations, and the paper is a preprint that has not yet been peer-reviewed.
The paper
Shanghai Jiao Tong University
Research Square · 28 Sep 2026 · Preprint, not peer-reviewed