Pacific Island life expectancy gains lag global benchmarks
Oceania's life expectancy rose from 52.8 to 69.1 years between 1950 and 2023, but gains were 0.137 years per year slower than global comparators.
Research Square
In 18 Pacific Island countries and territories, life expectancy improvements have progressed significantly slower than global benchmarks, according to an analysis of Global Burden of Disease 2023 estimates. Researchers modeled annual life-expectancy changes from 1950 to 2023 across Oceania, benchmarking regional trajectories against global patterns with and without adjustment for the Socio-demographic Index. Regional life expectancy rose from 52.8 to 69.1 years over the period, but progress was 0.137 years per year slower than global comparators after adjustment. All 18 jurisdictions fell below the benchmark, with Nauru, the Solomon Islands, Tuvalu, and the Marshall Islands falling furthest behind. Rather than a single uniform sequence, the analysis identified four coexisting transitions: early survival, youth health, premature cardiometabolic conditions, and advanced ageing. The authors found that mortality and morbidity between ages 25 and 69 now present the primary constraint on further longevity gains.
Why it matters
The findings illustrate how midlife cardiometabolic damage can stall demographic longevity transitions and restrict populations from reaching advanced ages. Identifying which life-course stages constrain survival helps clarify how aging-related pathology manifests across diverse global populations.
Caveats
This study is a preprint and has not yet completed peer review. The findings are based on observational and computational estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study rather than direct trial data.
The paper
Epidemiological transitions in Pacific Island countries and territories: 1950-2023
The University of Notre Dame Australia
Research Square · 28 Sep 2026 · Preprint, not peer-reviewed