Heatwaves linked to declining intrinsic capacity in older adults
Each extra heatwave day was associated with a relative risk ratio of 1.035 for falling into the lowest intrinsic capacity trajectory in older adults.
BMC Public Health
Researchers analyzed 1,393 Chinese adults aged 45 to 80 across three survey waves between 2011 and 2015 from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study. They tracked intrinsic capacity across locomotion, sensory, vitality, psychological, and cognitive domains on a 0 to 10 scale. The team identified three trajectory groups: high-stable (41.3%), moderate-declining (26.4%), and low-declining (32.3%). City-specific daily apparent temperatures defined heatwaves as readings at or above the 95th percentile for at least three consecutive days. Each cumulative heatwave day increased the risk of belonging to the low-declining trajectory (fully adjusted RRR = 1.035, 95% CI: 1.012–1.058). The association was stronger in rural residents and individuals with primary education or less, whereas cold spells showed no significant association.
Why it matters
Intrinsic capacity reflects the composite physical and mental reserves that underpin healthy aging. The findings suggest that recurring extreme heat events may accelerate the loss of functional capacity across multiple physiological systems.
Caveats
The observational design cannot establish direct causality between heat exposure and functional decline. The analysis was also limited to 1,393 Chinese participants who completed all three assessment waves over four years.
The paper
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Changlin Zhou, YuNa Huang, YuChen Wang, Sun Yong, XingChun Huang, Weilong Yao, Yuhao Chen, Yuhui Wang,Lanzhou University Second Hospital
BMC Public Health · 26 Sep 2026