Post-pandemic death deficits emerge across 33 countries
Across 38 populations, total 2020–2025 excess deaths reached 0.92–2.49 million, offset by a 2024–2025 deficit of 0.39–1.08 million deaths.
medRxiv
In 38 human populations with reliable vital registration data, researchers evaluated excess mortality across 2020–2025 using granular age stratification and historical trend models.
According to the preprint, cumulative excess deaths ranged from 0.92 to 2.49 million across the entire period. While 2020–2023 registered 1.99 to 2.88 million excess deaths, 2024–2025 reversed into a net deficit of 0.39 to 1.08 million deaths, with 33 of the 38 countries experiencing post-pandemic deficits. Across 2020–2025, four populations (Luxembourg, Ireland, Sweden, and New Zealand) recorded cumulative death deficits, whereas six populations had excess deaths exceeding 4%. Socioeconomically vulnerable populations experienced higher excess deaths during the pandemic but larger subsequent deficits.
Why it matters
These post-pandemic death deficits suggest that pandemic-era mortality disproportionately affected vulnerable individuals with modest remaining life expectancy. Accounting for these shifted timelines helps researchers more accurately track true population aging and baseline life expectancy trajectories.
Caveats
The study is a preprint that has not completed peer review. The findings are based on computational models, which are sensitive to baseline trend assumptions and data availability across different countries.
The paper
Stanford Medicine
medRxiv · 26 Sep 2026 · Preprint, not peer-reviewed