Link between triglyceride-glucose-body mass index and future cardiovascular disease risk in Chinese menopausal women: A nationwide prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: The association between the triglyceride glucose-body mass (TyG-BMI) index and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in postmenopausal women remains unclear. This study examines this association in Chinese menopausal women to develop targeted risk assessment tools. METHODS: Data from the 2011 and 2020 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) included menopausal women aged ≥45 years. Multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association between TyG-BMI and CVD. Restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression tested nonlinearity, and stratified analyses evaluated effect modification. RESULTS: Among 2405 participants, 609 (25.32 %) developed CVD. Each interquartile TyG-BMI (49.10) increase raised CVD risk by 28 % (OR = 1.28; 95 % CI: 1.07-1.53). A linear dose-response relationship existed for CVD (P-trend <0.05; P-nonlinearity >0.05). Marital status modified the association (P-interaction = 0.035), with no significant interactions in other subgroups. For CVD prediction, TyG-BMI (AUC = 0.645) outperformed TyG (AUC = 0.622). CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrates a significant association between TyG-BMI and the risk of CVD in postmenopausal women, supporting its utility as a valuable biomarker for enhancing primary prevention and management strategies in this population.