Clinical risk

Papers on clinical risk

1,002 papers133 new in 30 days

Saturday, November 7

AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Heart tracing model predicted irregular heartbeat risk across groups

The model scored 0.810 on a measure of distinguishing people who developed atrial fibrillation within 10 years from those who did not.The model scored 0.810 on a measure of distinguishing people who developed atrial fibrillation within 10 years from those who did not.

Heart cross-sections show jagged electrical activity in a large dark blue-green heart and even waves in a smaller gray heart, surrounded by upright figures.
Cohort · 76,967 peopleBiomarkers
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Blood protein score improves heart failure prediction

A 19-protein score achieved 0.80 versus 0.76 for clinical risk factors alone on a measure of how well it distinguished future heart failure cases.A 19-protein score achieved 0.80 versus 0.76 for clinical risk factors alone on a measure of how well it distinguished future heart failure cases.

Heart sections with enlarged and compact chambers sit beneath blood cells, folded proteins, and a small group of upright people.
Cohort · 52,483 peopleHeart failure
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Clinical obesity linked to higher cardiovascular disease risk

Under the new definition, people with obesity and clinical risk factors had higher cardiovascular risk than those without obesity, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.67.Under the new definition, people with obesity and clinical risk factors had higher cardiovascular risk than those without obesity, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.67.

A large heart with thick walls and a narrowed vessel sits beside a smaller heart with open chambers, each accompanied by clusters of fat cells.
Cohort · 14,845 peopleClinical obesity
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Heart tracing model flagged higher risk of an irregular heartbeat

Seven-year rates of atrial fibrillation, an irregular heartbeat, were 6.4% in people flagged by an artificial intelligence heart-tracing model, versus 2.1% in those not…Seven-year rates of atrial fibrillation, an irregular heartbeat, were 6.4% in people flagged by an artificial intelligence heart-tracing model, versus 2.1% in those not flagged.

A cutaway heart with dark branching patterns in its upper chambers sits beside a smaller gray heart with clear chambers and groups of upright figures.
Cohort · 43,394 peopleBiomarkers
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Heart scan features better predicted atrial fibrillation

Scan features scored 0.83 versus 0.74 for a clinical risk score in distinguishing who developed the condition; 1 would mean perfect separation.Scan features scored 0.83 versus 0.74 for a clinical risk score in distinguishing who developed the condition; 1 would mean perfect separation.

A heart cross-section shows open chambers and dark irregular shapes in an upper chamber, with arching blood vessels and a small group of people beside it.
Cohort · 4,226 peopleIncident atrial fibrillation
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Heart scan analysis improved heart failure risk prediction

For 10-year heart failure prediction, a scan-based model scored 0.84 versus 0.72 for a clinical score in distinguishing future cases from people who remained unaffected.For 10-year heart failure prediction, a scan-based model scored 0.84 versus 0.72 for a clinical score in distinguishing future cases from people who remained unaffected.

Heart cross-section with open chambers and white flecks on nearby vessels, surrounded by smaller sections with varying chamber shapes.
Cohort · 4,182 peopleHeart failure
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Heart, kidney and metabolic burden linked to later heart risk

An observational analysis of 2,968 CARDIA participants and 4,294 MESA participants linked accumulated burden to unfavorable heart structure and function and higher…An observational analysis of 2,968 CARDIA participants and 4,294 MESA participants linked accumulated burden to unfavorable heart structure and function and higher cardiovascular event risk.

A thick-walled heart section sits beside kidneys and enlarged fat cells, with a smaller, thinner-walled heart and sparse fat cells nearby.
Cohort studyPopulations
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Sleep patterns linked to irregular heartbeat risk in Fitbit users

Each extra hour of deep sleep was linked to 13.5% lower relative risk; each extra hour of rapid eye movement sleep to 11.3% lower risk.Each extra hour of deep sleep was linked to 13.5% lower relative risk; each extra hour of rapid eye movement sleep to 11.3% lower risk.

Heart cross-sections show smooth atrial curves in a large dark blue-green heart and scattered marks in a smaller gray heart, beside broad and slim crescents.
Cohort · 43,704 peopleBiomarkers
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

AI heart-tracing screens linked to later heart failure

Positive combined screens were linked to 3.4-fold and 4.3-fold relative heart failure risks versus negative screens at Massachusetts General and Emory, respectively.Positive combined screens were linked to 3.4-fold and 4.3-fold relative heart failure risks versus negative screens at Massachusetts General and Emory, respectively.

A large dark blue-green heart cutaway with an enlarged chamber sits beside a smaller gray heart, with matching groups of faceless people above.
Cohort studyHeart failure
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Scan-based heart age linked to higher one-year cardiac risk

Over one year, cardiac events occurred in 20.5% of patients whose scan-based heart age exceeded their actual age by at least two years, versus 5.5% otherwise.Over one year, cardiac events occurred in 20.5% of patients whose scan-based heart age exceeded their actual age by at least two years, versus 5.5% otherwise.

A branching coronary artery narrowed by thick deposits sits among smaller artery sections with either wide openings or plaque-constricted passages.
Cohort · 1,672 peopleBiomarkers

Friday, November 6

Thursday, November 5

Archives of Osteoporosis

Two or three births linked to lower osteoporosis risk

Osteoporosis hazard ratios—measures of relative risk—were 0.894 for two live births and 0.892 for three, compared with women with none.Osteoporosis hazard ratios—measures of relative risk—were 0.894 for two live births and 0.892 for three, compared with women with none.

Figure from Archives of Osteoporosis
Cohort · 119,969 peopleOsteoporosis

Wednesday, November 4

Tuesday, November 3