More older Europeans with cardiovascular disease may need daily help
A model projected 6.21 million older EU adults with both cardiovascular disease and severe dependency in 2050, up from 4.06 million in 2021.
Our read
Populations- Studied:
- Computational study
- Why it’s aging research:
- It measures an outcome that worsens with age.
Editor of record: Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News
Adults aged 65 and older across the EU’s 27 member countries were the focus of a computational model projecting health needs through 2050. It combined population forecasts with data on cardiovascular disease—conditions affecting the heart and blood vessels—and severe dependency on help with basic daily activities.
The model projected that the population with cardiovascular disease would grow from 44.1 million in 2021 to 59.2 million in 2050. Among them, the share also living with severe dependency was projected to rise from 9.2% to 10.5%. Population changes drove the increase in numbers, partly offset by declining cardiovascular disease prevalence. A scenario added after the main analysis, extending earlier declines in dependency, instead projected 3.61 million people living with both conditions in 2050.
Why it matters
The projections suggest that cardiovascular care planning for aging populations should account for changing ability to manage daily life, not just population growth.
Caveats
The model assumed unchanged dependency rates within age groups, no variation in those rates by age beyond 75, and independence between cardiovascular disease and dependency within population subgroups. It estimated co-occurrence, not dependency caused by cardiovascular disease, and only partly accounted for uncertainty.
- Modeling and theory
- Cardiovascular disease
- Severe functional dependency
- Activities of daily living dependency
- Humans
The paper
Cardiovascular Morbidity and Functional Dependency in an Ageing Europe: EU27 Projections to 2050
Justus-Liebig-University; University of Siegen
European Heart Journal Quality of Care & Clinical Outcomes, Nov 6, 2026
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