Risk model tailored to Latin America and the Caribbean
The model’s scores for distinguishing higher-risk from lower-risk people ranged from 0.668 to 0.789 in validation data from 127,581 people across seven countries.
Independent replication, multicenter
Limit: The study did not report whether predicted risks matched observed event rates
Edited by Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News
Researchers adapted a cardiovascular risk model for adults aged 40–69 without previous cardiovascular disease or diabetes in Latin America and the Caribbean. The modeling study aimed to estimate their 10-year risk of fatal or nonfatal heart attacks and strokes.
The researchers divided countries into four risk regions based on cardiovascular death rates. They adjusted the existing model using regional disease rates and risk-factor patterns. They then tested it using data from 10 additional cohorts across seven countries, including 127,581 people and 3,844 cardiovascular events. Scores measuring how well the model ranked people by risk ranged from 0.668 to 0.789 across cohorts. Higher scores indicate better ranking.
Why it matters
Estimating the risk of a first heart attack or stroke may help identify who would benefit most from preventive action as people age.
Caveats
This model-validation study reported risk-ranking performance, but the congress abstract did not report whether predicted risks matched observed event rates. The model targets adults aged 40–69 without previous cardiovascular disease or diabetes, not people outside those groups.
The paper
University Medical Center Utrecht
ESC Congress 2026 Abstract, Oct 26, 2026, Open access
Presented at ESC Congress 2026
