AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 AbstractNov 9, 2026, 01:44 GMT

Heart failure model predicted risk well overall in US veterans

The model scored 0.81 for distinguishing veterans who developed heart failure from those who did not, and closely matched overall risk over 10 years.

Paper by Rebecca Lauren Tisdale, Neil M. Kalwani, Jun Fan, +8Alex Tarlochan Singh Sandhu · Stanford University · University of California, Los Angeles

A heart cross-section with thick muscle walls sits beside upright faceless people and a smaller gray heart with a widened chamber and thinner wall.

Our read

Biomarkers

Studied:: Cohort study of 1,990,002 US veterans without known heart failure or ASCVD, 10 years
What changed:: Predicted heart failure risk closely matched observed risk
The catch:: Heart failure outcomes relied on diagnosis codes in health records
In the record:: The 4th paper on PREVENT-HF with results in people; 13 on record in all.

Editor of record: Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News

Paper

Among 1,990,002 US veterans aged 30–79 without known heart failure or cardiovascular disease caused by fatty buildup in arteries, researchers tested a heart failure risk equation in a retrospective observational study. Women made up 8.8% of the cohort. The analysis used Veterans Health Administration and Medicare records.

Over 10 years, 160,400 veterans received new heart failure diagnoses. The American Heart Association’s equation closely matched overall observed risk and performed well at distinguishing who developed heart failure, while accounting for deaths. Performance was similar in urban and rural veterans. However, it underestimated risk in female veterans and those without diabetes. It overestimated risk in Asian and Hispanic veterans.

Why it matters

Estimating future heart failure risk can help prioritize prevention as people age. The authors emphasized validating risk models in diverse populations before using them to guide prevention.

Caveats

Heart failure outcomes relied on diagnosis codes in health records. These conference-abstract findings do not cover people with existing heart failure or cardiovascular disease caused by fatty buildup in arteries.