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AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract

Extreme heat linked to excess US heart and blood vessel deaths

A statistical model estimated 45,103 excess deaths from heart and blood vessel disease in 2000–2023 compared with a scenario without extreme heat.

Paper by Isha K. Thapar, Jonathan J. Szeto, Charles E. Leonard, +3 more authorsSameed Ahmed M. Khatana · University of Pennsylvania
A heart cross-section with a dark damaged patch sits beneath heat waves, beside a smaller intact heart and a group of upright, faceless people.

Our read

Populations
Studied:
Study of 20,475,990 deceased adults aged 20 and older
What changed:
Extreme heat was linked to an estimated 45,103 excess cardiovascular deaths between 2000 and 2023
The catch:
Excess deaths were model estimates, not individually identified heat-related deaths
In the record:
The 14th paper on extreme heat with results in people; 20 on record in all.
Why it’s aging research:
It bears on staying healthy in midlife and later life.

Editor of record: Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News

Paper
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Adults aged 20 and older in the contiguous United States were the focus of an observational analysis of deaths and extreme heat from 2000 to 2023. National records contained 20,475,990 deaths from heart and blood vessel disease during that period.

The model linked extreme heat to an estimated 45,103 excess deaths, including 34,978 among adults aged 65 and older. It found associations for deaths from reduced blood supply to the heart and irregular heart rhythms, but not for stroke or heart failure. The estimated average annual heat-linked excess death rate in 2019–2023 was 108.2% higher than in 2000–2004 among adults aged 20–64. Among adults aged 65 and older, it was 30.8% higher.

Why it matters

For aging populations, the estimates address how extreme heat may add to the burden of deaths from heart and blood vessel disease.

Caveats

The excess deaths were model estimates against a hypothetical scenario without extreme heat, not individually identified heat-related deaths. The findings were reported in a conference abstract.

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