Multiple chronic illnesses rose in rural South African death data
The share of deceased people with at least three chronic conditions rose from 8% in 2012 to 15% in 2019.
Limit: Illnesses before death were reported in verbal autopsies, making disease counts vulnerable to reporting errors
Edited by Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News
An observational study examined reported illnesses before death among 5,892 deceased individuals in rural northeast South Africa from 2012 to 2022. Researchers analyzed verbal autopsy data—reports used to investigate deaths—from the Agincourt surveillance area in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province. They tracked chronic illnesses and identified patterns of conditions occurring together.
The proportion with multiple chronic conditions increased. The share with at least three conditions remained relatively stable in 2020–2022 after rising earlier. High blood pressure rose from approximately 25% in 2012 to over 50% in 2022. Disease clusters increasingly involved high blood pressure and diabetes. Adults aged 65 or older and females had the highest burden of multiple chronic conditions.
Why it matters
The researchers called for rural health services to integrate care for infectious and noninfectious chronic diseases, with particular attention to older adults and women.
Caveats
This observational analysis relied on reported illnesses before death and cannot establish causes. It describes deceased individuals in one rural area, not disease prevalence among living South Africans.
The paper
South African Medical Research Council
BMC Public Health, Jul 23, 2026, Open access
