Quantifying the effects of neutron dose, dose protraction, age and sex on mouse survival using parametric regression and machine learning on a 21,000-mouse data set

The biological effects of densely-ionizing radiations such as neutrons and heavy ions encountered in space travel, nuclear incidents, and cancer radiotherapy, significantly differ from those of sparsely-ionizing photons and necessitate a comprehensive understanding for improved protection measures. Data on lifespan studies of laboratory rodents exposed to fission neutrons, accumulated in the Janus archive, afford unique insights into the impact of densely ionizing radiation on mortality from cancers and various organ dysfunction. We extracted and analyzed data for 21,308 individual B6CF1 mice to investigate the effects of neutron dose, fractionation, protraction, age, and sex on mortality. As Cox regression encountered limitations owing to assumption violations, we turned to Random Survival Forests (RSF), a machine learning algorithm adept at modeling nonlinear relationships. RSF interpretation using Shapley Additive Explanations revealed a dose response for mortality risk that curved upwards at low doses < 20 cGy, became nearly-linear over 20-150 cGy, and saturated at high doses. The response was enhanced by fractionation/protraction of irradiation (exhibiting an inverse dose rate effect), and diminished by older age at exposure. Somewhat reduced mortality was predicted for males vs females. This research expands our knowledge on the long-term effects of densely ionizing radiations on mammal mortality.