Heart failure risk tool distinguished one subtype better
In 23,652 adults, scores for distinguishing future cases were 0.824 with a preserved proportion of blood pumped per heartbeat, versus 0.789 with a reduced proportion.
Edited by Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News
Adults aged 30–79 without existing cardiovascular disease or heart failure were studied in an observational analysis of PREVENT-HF, a tool estimating 10-year heart failure risk. Five pooled cohorts included 23,652 people (55% women; average age 60). Primary-care records covered 29,815 people at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (55% women; average age 50) and 138,999 at Mass General Brigham (62% women; average age 52).
The researchers assessed two heart failure subtypes: preserved and reduced ejection fraction. Ejection fraction is the proportion of blood pumped out of the heart’s main pumping chamber with each heartbeat. Across all three samples, the tool better distinguished future cases from people who did not develop that subtype for preserved than reduced ejection fraction. Agreement between predicted and observed risks was similar for both subtypes.
Why it matters
For heart failure risk assessment in middle and older adulthood, the findings raise the question of how to interpret risk for different forms of the disease. The authors called for studies to establish subtype-specific risk thresholds.
Caveats
This observational model-validation study assessed prediction, not whether using the tool improved health. It covered adults aged 30–79 without existing cardiovascular disease or heart failure, not people outside those groups.
- Heart failure
- PREVENT-HF
- Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction
- Heart failure with reduced ejection fraction
- Humans
The paper
Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center; CardioVascular Institute and Division of Cardiology
Circulation, Nov 2, 2026
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