Heart valve disease death rates rose in older US adults
The age-adjusted rate rose 1.52% annually from 2018 to 2023, reaching 109.2 deaths per 100,000 adults aged 65 and older per year.
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Populations- Studied:
- Computational study
Editor of record: Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News
US adults aged 65 and older were the focus of an observational analysis of national death records covering 1999–2023 and 1,204,490 deaths related to heart valve disease. Rates adjusted for age differences fell from 123.2 deaths per 100,000 people per year in 1999 before turning upward in 2018–2023, reaching 109.2 in 2023.
Men had higher rates than women, and nonmetropolitan areas had higher rates than metropolitan areas. Non-Hispanic White people had the highest rate among racial and ethnic groups. A forecasting model projected that the rate would stabilize at 109.2 deaths per 100,000 people per year through 2040, approximately 35% above projections extending the pre-pandemic trend.
Why it matters
For an aging population, the authors called for expanded heart valve care targeted at the oldest adults, rural communities and other groups carrying the greatest burden.
Caveats
The apparent turning point depended on the analysis: a sensitivity check found that the decline continued through 2019. These conference-abstract findings included a model forecast whose 2040 uncertainty range spanned 89.1 to 129.3 deaths per 100,000 people per year.
The paper
All India Institute of Med Sciences; Baystate Med Cntr
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract, Nov 2, 2026
Presented at AHA Scientific Sessions 2026, abstract 17023
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