Median gap from starting smoking to lung cancer topped 40 years
Among Norwegian participants who developed lung cancer, the median interval after starting smoking was 53.3 years, longer than the previously reported lag of up to 40 years.
ERJ Open Research
In an observational study of 80,761 people in Norway who had ever smoked, 1,336 developed lung cancer. Researchers used linked data from 11 population-based cohorts, which followed participants over time. Participants reported when they started smoking. The median follow-up after joining the study was 11.9 years.
Among those who developed lung cancer, the median age at diagnosis was 72.5 years. The median interval from starting smoking to diagnosis was 53.3 years, longer than the previously reported lag of up to 40 years. The median interval was shorter in women than men: 48.6 versus 55.5 years. Current smokers had a shorter median interval than former smokers: 50.7 versus 54.2 years.
Why it matters
Lung cancer is commonly diagnosed in later life. The authors said understanding the interval after smoking begins was important for planning healthcare, lung cancer screening and prevention.
Caveats
This observational analysis relied on self-reported smoking onset and measured the interval only in people who developed lung cancer. It does not estimate an individual smoker’s chance of developing the disease.
The paper
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
ERJ Open Research · 5 Oct 2026
