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JACC Cardiovascular Imaging

Artery plaque volume improved heart risk prediction

Automated plaque measurements improved a model’s ability to distinguish people with future coronary events from others, scoring 0.798 versus 0.783 without them.

Paper by Johan Malmqvist, Chunliang Wang, Göran M.L. Bergström, +7 more authorsTomas Jernberg · Danderyds sjukhus
Graphical abstract from JACC Cardiovascular Imaging
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Graphical abstract. Malmqvist et al.

Our read

Biomarkers
Studied:
Cohort study of 23,314 adults without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease
What changed:
Adding plaque volume improved prediction of heart attacks or coronary deaths, with model scores of 0.798 versus 0.783 without it
The catch:
The analysis did not measure whether software-guided care prevented heart attacks
Stake:
Authors hold shares in AstraZeneca.
In the record:
The 6th paper on total plaque volume with results in people; 10 on record in all.
Why it’s aging research:
It bears on staying healthy in midlife and later life.

Editor of record: Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News

Paper
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In an observational cohort study, researchers followed 23,314 men and women aged 50–64 without prior atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, which involves plaque buildup in arteries. Software using deep learning, a form of artificial intelligence, measured plaque volume on computed tomography scans of the arteries supplying the heart. Over a median of 7.8 years, participants experienced 287 heart attacks or deaths from coronary heart disease.

Higher plaque volumes were associated with higher event risk, including in people with no detectable calcium in these arteries or no manually detected plaque. Adding total plaque volume improved predictions beyond an established risk score and a manual measure of how many artery segments contained plaque. Measuring only plaque without calcium deposits gave similar results.

Why it matters

Assessing coronary risk in middle age addresses how to identify people who may develop heart disease as they grow older.

Caveats

This observational analysis assessed risk prediction, not whether using the software to guide care prevented heart attacks. The findings concern adults aged 50–64 without established atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease whose scans met quality requirements.

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