Circulating Extracellular Vesicle MicroRNAs as Predictive Biomarkers for Kidney and Cardiovascular Events

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) leads to premature mortality from cardiovascular events before kidney replacement therapy. Despite recognition of syndromes like cardiorenal anemia and cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic, predictive models for kidney and cardiovascular outcomes remain inadequate. This study aimed to develop a minimally invasive, risk model using circulating small extracellular vesicle-derived miRNAs among patients with CKD. METHODS: A derivation cohort (n=36) underwent microarray-based miRNA profiling, and a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-penalized Cox proportional hazards model was constructed. Validation was performed using TaqMan quantitative polymerase chain reaction in a cohort of 234 patients with CKD without kidney replacement therapy. The primary outcome was a ≥30% reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate or progression to kidney replacement therapy. The secondary outcome included all-cause mortality, kidney replacement therapy initiation, and major adverse cardiovascular events. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, 36% of patients had hypertensive glomerulosclerosis as the underlying CKD cause, increasing to 48% in the validation cohort. Twenty-three miRNAs were significantly downregulated in advanced CKD, associated with cellular senescence, FOXO (forkhead box, class O) signaling, and cell cycle pathways. From these, 3 miRNAs-hsa-let-7d-5p, hsa-miR-24-3p, and hsa-miR-126-3p-were selected and integrated into the final risk score with cystatin C and urinary protein levels, following optimization in the validation cohort. Lower miRNA levels were linked to cardiovascular comorbidities and cardiorenal anemia syndrome. Over a median follow-up of 39 and 59 months, 108 kidney events and 70 composite outcomes occurred. The model effectively predicted adverse outcomes across CKD causes, further stratifying risk within cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic stage classifications. CONCLUSIONS: Circulating small extracellular vesicle-derived miRNA profiles enable a noninvasive, longitudinally predictive model for adverse kidney and cardiovascular outcomes in CKD. This approach may improve early risk identification and clinical decision-making.