Nephrology, Dialysis, TransplantationNov 2, 2026, 08:34 GMT

Accounting for death improved kidney failure risk predictions

Compared with the original equation, the updated model better matched five-year kidney failures in UK participants with multiple conditions, with an observed-to-predicted ratio of 0.98.

Paper by Heather A. Walker, Juan Jesús Carrero, Michael K. Sullivan, +6Patrick Barry Mark · University of Glasgow · NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde

Our read

Biomarkers

Studied:: Cohort study of 14,998 UK Biobank participants with CKD and multimorbidity, 5 years (Independent replication)
What changed:: Accounting for death improved kidney failure prediction in UK participants with multiple conditions: observed-to-predicted ratio 0.98 versus 1.75
The catch:: The study measured prediction accuracy, not whether the updated model improved patient outcomes
In the record:: The 77th paper on Cystatin C with results in people; 555 on record in all.
Why it’s aging research:: It measures an outcome that worsens with age.

Editor of record: Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News

Paper

An observational cohort study followed 24,489 UK Biobank participants with chronic kidney disease and 42,902 in Sweden for two and five years. Their average ages were 62.8 and 70.1 years, respectively; 54% and 66% were female. Researchers tested a kidney failure prediction equation and developed an updated model that accounted for dying before kidney failure. Kidney failure meant long-term dialysis or a kidney transplant.

The original equation distinguished higher-risk from lower-risk people well, but underestimated five-year risk in UK participants with at least two other long-term conditions. The updated model, developed in Sweden and validated in UK Biobank, improved agreement between predictions and outcomes, particularly in people with multiple conditions. Its ratio of observed to predicted kidney failures was 0.98 in this UK group; a ratio of one means a match.

Why it matters

For older people with chronic kidney disease, estimating the chance of needing dialysis or a transplant can help guide referrals for kidney care.

Caveats

This observational study tested predictions, not whether using the updated model improved patient outcomes. People already receiving long-term dialysis or with a kidney transplant were excluded.