Risk score predicted chronic obstructive lung disease
Over 10 years, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease developed in 1.5% of the low-risk group and 42% of the very-high-risk group in one cohort.
Our read
Biomarkers- Studied:
- Cohort study of 14,506 people without airflow obstruction, 5–10 years, against the low-risk group (Independent replication)
- What changed:
- Chronic obstructive lung disease developed in 42% of the very-high-risk group against 1.5% of the low-risk group over 10 years
- The catch:
- COPD was defined using lung tests taken before an airway-opening drug
- Why it’s aging research:
- It bears on staying healthy in midlife and later life.
Editor of record: Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News
People without restricted airflow on lung tests were followed for 5–10 years in an observational study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Researchers developed a risk score in 14,506 participants and validated it in separate cohorts of 8,673 and 2,982 people. The score combined smoking history, current smoking, respiratory symptoms, asthma and two measures of lung function.
In the development cohort, COPD developed over 10 years in 1.5% of the low-risk group, 9.3% of the intermediate-risk group, 24% of the high-risk group and 42% of the very-high-risk group. Over five years, COPD developed in 25% and 31% of the very-high-risk groups in the two validation cohorts, respectively. The score was also associated with episodes of worsening symptoms.
Why it matters
The score addresses how to identify people at risk before chronic lung disease becomes established—a question relevant to maintaining lung health with age.
Caveats
The outcome was defined by lung tests taken before an airway-opening drug. The analysis assessed prediction, not whether using the score to guide care prevented COPD.
- Modeling and theory
- Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
- Respiratory symptoms
- Asthma
- Airflow obstruction
- Humans
The paper
Development and Validation of a Pre-COPD Score to Predict Incident COPD
Copenhagen University Hospital – Herlev and Gentofte Department of Respiratory Medicine; Copenhagen University Hospital – Herlev and Gentofte The Copenhagen General Population Study
American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Nov 6, 2026
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