Life expectancy gaps widened in Philadelphia during the pandemic
Across Philadelphia census tracts, median changes from 2017–2019 to 2020–2022 were declines of 2.10 years for men and 1.37 years for women.
An observational modelling study estimated life expectancy at birth for men and women in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, by census tract. It compared 2017–2019 with 2020–2022, during the COVID-19 pandemic. The researchers used a statistical model that drew on information from neighbouring tracts and known patterns of death rates at different ages. This helped account for small local counts.
Life expectancy declines were concentrated in areas where it was already lower before the pandemic. Lower-income areas had steeper declines, widening life expectancy disparities. The researchers assessed both overall gaps between areas and gaps linked to income.
Why it matters
Life expectancy summarises mortality across the lifespan. Local estimates can help reveal how a mortality crisis affects inequalities in population health.
Caveats
This observational comparison cannot establish what caused the changes. The results were model-based estimates for Philadelphia neighbourhoods, not measurements of individuals’ lifespans.
The paper
A Bayesian Approach to Estimating Changes in Small Area Life Expectancy Disparities in Philadelphia
Drexel University
American Journal of Epidemiology, 16 Oct 2026
