High risk for two heart conditions is linked to more heart events
Five-year serious cardiovascular events reached 323.0 per 1000 people at dual high risk, compared with 144.7 for single high risk and 59.0 for low risk.
5 years
Limit: Dual-high-risk individuals had more comorbidities, but models adjusted only for age and sex
Edited by Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News
In an observational cohort study, researchers analyzed health records from 3,101,727 people in the UK aged 40 years or older without known atrial fibrillation, an irregular heartbeat, or heart failure. The participants had a mean age of 64.5 years, and 49.1% were women. Using predictive models, the team classified 790,534 people at high risk for both conditions, 710,294 at high risk for one condition, and 1,600,899 at low risk for both.
Over five years, cumulative incidence of a combined outcome—heart failure, stroke or mini-stroke, heart attack, and cardiovascular death—was 323.0 per 1000 persons at dual high risk, compared with 144.7 for single high risk and 59.0 for low risk. For this combined outcome, dual-high-risk individuals had an age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratio of 6.1 compared with low-risk individuals, and they had the highest frequency and hazard for each individual component.
Why it matters
Atrial fibrillation and heart failure are often diagnosed late, and individuals at high risk for both tend to be older and carry more co-existing medical conditions. Identifying people at dual high risk from routine health data may offer opportunities for targeted early diagnosis and treatment to prevent adverse cardiovascular outcomes.
Caveats
Because this observational study analyzed routine records, it shows associations rather than whether screening simultaneously for both conditions improves patient outcomes. The findings also do not apply to people younger than 40 or to those already diagnosed with atrial fibrillation or heart failure.
