Aging index better predicted death in US adults

In a retrospective cohort study, researchers analysed data from 6,896 adults in the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2005–2018. They developed an aging index for cardiovascular–kidney–metabolic syndrome, a set of linked problems affecting the heart, kidneys and how the body uses energy. They weighted the analysis to represent US adults.

The researchers used machine learning to compare more than 100 candidate models. The index outperformed three existing age and health measures in predicting deaths from any cause and deaths from heart and blood vessel disease, and in identifying high-risk syndrome status. For deaths from any cause, it scored 0.893 on a measure of how well it distinguished people who died within three years from those who survived. It scored 0.907 at five years and 0.890 at ten years.