Newer equations lower estimated artery disease risk in US adults
Average estimated 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease from fatty buildup in arteries was 4.56% with newer equations versus 8.84% with older equations.
Our read
Biomarkers- Studied:
- Cross-sectional study of 6,814 US adults without self-reported ASCVD or heart failure
- What changed:
- Estimated 10-year artery disease risk was lower with PREVENT: 4.56% versus 8.84% with older equations
- The catch:
- Calculated risks were compared, rather than which equations better predicted future disease
- Why it’s aging research:
- It bears on staying healthy in midlife and later life.
Editor of record: Boris Djordjevic · AgingResearch.News
In 6,814 US adults aged 40–79, an observational analysis compared equations that estimated 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease caused by fatty buildup in arteries. Participants reported no such disease or heart failure, a condition in which the heart does not pump blood as well as it should. National health survey data covered 2017–March 2020 and 2021–2023 and represented 110.0 million adults.
The American Heart Association’s newer equations, which do not use race, placed 42.2% of adults in a lower risk category than the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations. Another 57.2% stayed in the same category, while 0.6% moved upward. The newer equations also estimated average 10-year risks of 7.60% for cardiovascular disease overall and 4.96% for heart failure.
Why it matters
For middle-aged and older adults, the authors suggested that considering heart failure and total cardiovascular risk may broaden preventive assessment beyond artery-related disease alone.
Caveats
Comparing calculated risks does not show which equations better predicted future disease. The findings were reported in a conference abstract and covered adults aged 40–79 without self-reported artery-related cardiovascular disease or heart failure.
The paper
Baptist Hosps of Southeast Texas; B.J. Med College
AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract, Nov 2, 2026
Presented at AHA Scientific Sessions 2026, abstract 11546
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