Temporal probability-guided preparation

C, W, M, H: cells, worms or flies, mice, humans. Dark: independent labs found the same change there. Light: one lab or one study. Outline: nothing yet.

Labs are independent when their papers share no last author and no institution.

Against: findings that point the other way from most findings on the same outcome.

On aging: the drug’s trials ARN judged to be about aging, of every trial that tests it for any use.

No results posted: trials that ended more than a year ago with no results on ClinicalTrials.gov and no paper in ARN’s record.

Company ties: findings with an author at a company, or from a paper whose competing-interests statement declares ties to one.