Myopic macular degeneration risk rises with eye length and age

Researchers analysed data from 14,108 people aged 30 and older across four population-based investigations. They assessed axial length, the front-to-back measurement of the eyeball, to calculate the probability of myopic macular degeneration, retinal damage linked to severe short-sightedness.

The team split 27,607 eyes equally into development and validation subgroups to create probability equations. In the validation subgroup, the equations distinguished stage 2 or higher and stage 3 or higher damage with areas under the curve of 0.996 and 0.998. Applying the equations, the probability of stage 2 or higher damage for an eye length of 28 millimetres increased from 55.0% at age 30 to 88.1% at age 75. For stage 3 or higher damage, the probability increased from 8.3% to 57.5% at 28 millimetres, and from 81.8% to 98.5% at 30 millimetres.