Journal of the National Cancer Center · Sep 29, 2026

Burden, trends, and projections of prostate cancer: global cancer statistics (GLOBOCAN) estimates for 2024 and 2022

By Liu X, Zheng W, Ji Y et al.

OBJECTIVE: Prostate cancer remains a major health burden with substantial epidemiological disparities. Integrating updated estimates is essential for understanding evolving disease patterns and guiding future health policies. METHODS: Using GLOBOCAN 2024, we systematically analyzed prostate cancer incidence and mortality across 186 countries, stratified by United Nations regions, age at onset (<50 vs. ≥50 years), and Human Development Index (HDI). Temporal trends were assessed using estimated annual percentage change, and future burden was projected to 2050 assuming constant age-specific rates. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was calculated as a surrogate for health-system performance. RESULTS: In 2024, an estimated 1,546,112 new cases (ASIR 29.30/100,000) and 419,849 deaths (ASMR 7.50/100,000) occurred globally, an increase of 5% from 2022. North America had the highest incidence (ASIR 80.82/100,000), whereas mortality was highest in the Caribbean (28.55/100,000) and Western Africa (24.60/100,000). Very-high-HDI countries had the highest incidence but favourable MIRs (∼0.13 in U.S.), whereas low-HDI countries had MIRs of ∼0.62 (Nigeria), signalling major diagnostic and therapeutic gaps. Temporal trends showed rising incidence in Africa and Asia, with declining mortality in most regions except Africa; early-onset mortality increased in Asia and Oceania. By 2050, global cases and deaths are projected to rise substantially, with the largest proportional increases in Africa; early-onset cases will decline in Eastern Asia, South America, and most of Europe. CONCLUSIONS: The global prostate cancer burden is shifting towards transitioning countries, where low MIRs reveal major gaps in early detection. Prioritising risk-stratified screening and strengthening health-system infrastructure in resource-limited settings are urgently needed to guide global policy.

doi.org/10.1016/j.jncc.2026.09.008 Open access PubMed 42985087 Populations