Cancer Treatment and Research Communications · Oct 24, 2026

Laryngeal cancer burden, risk attribution, and forecasts in mainland China and Taiwan: a Global Burden of Disease 2023 analysis

By Zhou LJ, Huang Y, Wang L

BACKGROUND: Comparative evidence on laryngeal cancer burden in mainland China and Taiwan remains limited. METHODS: We analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 estimates for 1990-2023 and conditional projections to 2040. Outcomes included incident cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and age-standardised incidence (ASIR), death (ASDR) and DALY (ASDALY) rates. Analyses covered Joinpoint trends, Socio-demographic Index (SDI) associations, population-attributable fractions (PAFs), Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) projections and fixed-rate demographic scenarios. Between-location rate ratios used approximate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) with correlation sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Mainland China had 43.05 thousand incident cases, 20.41 thousand deaths and 509.19 thousand DALYs in 2023; Taiwan had 0.83 thousand, 0.29 thousand and 7.20 thousand, respectively. Burden was concentrated among older men. Both-sex mainland China-to-Taiwan rate ratios were 0.959 (approximate 95% UI 0.681-1.350) for ASIR, 1.351 (1.029-1.772) for ASDR and 1.285 (0.974-1.694) for ASDALY, assuming zero cross-location covariance. ASDR declined overall by 1.74% annually in mainland China and 2.38% in Taiwan; corresponding ASDALY declines were 1.81% and 2.10%. Mainland China's male ASIR increased during 2014-2023. SDI associations weakened in sensitivity analyses. Tobacco and high alcohol use contributed substantially to attributable burden. Forecasts were uncertain; demographic scenarios suggested increasing case numbers despite population decline. CONCLUSIONS: Priorities include tobacco and alcohol control, occupational-risk reduction, timely diagnosis, and equitable treatment and rehabilitation. Ecological associations and conditional projections do not establish causality or deterministic future outcomes.

doi.org/10.1016/j.ctarc.2026.101502Open accessPubMed 42933132Populations