Clinical Interventions in Aging · Oct 21, 2026

Analysis of Risk Factors and Development of a Predictive Model for 1-Year Mortality After Acute Hip Fracture Surgery in Patients Aged ≥80 Years: The Prognostic Nutritional Index as a Potential Predictor

By Li S, Lu S, Zhang L et al.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate independent risk factors for 1-year mortality after acute hip-fracture surgery in patients aged ≥80 years and construct a risk-stratification nomogram to identify high-risk patients for intensified postoperative monitoring and preventive interventions. METHODS: This retrospective study enrolled patients aged ≥80 years undergoing hip-fracture surgery (2017-2024). Candidate predictors included baseline, surgical, and laboratory variables. Independent predictors were selected via univariate-multivariate logistic and LASSO regression. Nomogram performance was assessed using ROC analysis, calibration curves, and decision-curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: In total, 463 patients were randomly split into 7:3 training-validation cohorts. Sex, age, comorbidity count, preoperative PNI, hemoglobin, creatinine, and postoperative NLR were independent predictors of 1-year all-cause mortality. The derived nomogram showed favorable discrimination, calibration, and clinical net benefit. CONCLUSION: This internally validated nomogram integrating PNI and other risk factors predicts 1-year postoperative mortality in patients aged ≥80 years with hip fracture and may support clinical risk-stratification decisions.

doi.org/10.2147/cia.s627357 Open access PubMed 42928863 Biomarkers