Revista de Investigacion Clinica; Organo Del Hospital de Enfermedades de la Nutricion · Oct 19, 2026

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal and stomach cancers attributable to smoking and alcohol use, 1990-2023, and projections to 2050

By Wen J, Su Y

OBJECTIVE: To quantify temporal and geographic trends in mortality and morbidity attributable to these risk factors from 1990 to 2023 and to project disease burden through 2050. METHODS: Annual estimates of deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) were extracted by age, sex, and geographic region. Temporal trends in age-standardized rates were assessed using estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) derived from log-linear regression and joinpoint regression to identify inflection points. For projections through 2050, we applied an ensemble approach incorporating autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, exponential smoothing state-space models, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) analysis. RESULTS: Between 1990 and 2023, age-standardized mortality from smoking-attributable gastric cancer declined substantially (EAPC -4.37, 95% CI -4.62 to -4.12), while declines for smoking-attributable colorectal cancer were more modest (EAPC -1.96, 95% CI -2.10 to -1.82). Alcohol-attributable colorectal cancer presented a complex pattern: although age-standardized rates decreased globally, absolute DALYs increased by 16.5%, with rising incidence in transitioning economies such as Vietnam. Males accounted for the majority of burden across all metrics. CONCLUSIONS: While age-standardized rates for both malignancies have declined over three decades, absolute disease burden - particularly for colorectal cancer among men - persists.

doi.org/10.1016/j.ric.2026.100062Open accessPubMed 42897080Populations