GeoHealth · Oct 17, 2026

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of the Global Death Burden of Main Diseases Attributable to High Temperature in the Past 30 Years: Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

By Wang Z, Liu Y, Deng L et al.

High temperatures pose a serious threat to human health. Quantifying the main disease death burden attributable to high temperatures can provide scientific evidence for policy development. Using Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we identified the death burden attributable to high temperatures across all causes and determined the three leading causes. For each, we used age-standardized mortality rates attributable to high temperature (HA-ASMR) and estimated temporal trends via age-period-cohort modeling at global, regional, and national levels (1990-2021). Ischemic heart disease, stroke, and lower respiratory infections were the top three causes of deaths attributable to high temperature in 2021. Low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions had the highest HA-ASMR for ischemic heart disease (3.49, 95%UI: 0.96-6.57) and stroke (2.55, 95%UI: 0.77-5.01), whereas lower respiratory infections showed the highest HA-ASMR in low SDI regions (2.52, 95%UI: 0.85-4.35). Age-period-cohort analysis generated net drift values for HA-ASMR in high SDI regions, with values of 0.99% (95%CI: 0.60%-1.39%) for ischemic heart disease, 1.19% (95%CI: 0.99%-1.40%) for stroke, and 2.36% (95%CI: 2.01%-2.70%) for lower respiratory infections. Longitudinal age curves showed elevated mortality risks attributable to high temperature in populations over 60 years. Global period and cohort rate ratios for high-temperature-attributable ischemic heart disease mortality increased over time. Global ischemic heart disease and stroke deaths attributable to high temperature continued rising with sharply elevated risks in older adults, while lower respiratory infection deaths attributable to high temperature among youth in high-income countries are increasing. Therefore, adaptation strategies must be specific to disease and age, varying by regional characteristics.

doi.org/10.1029/2025gh001623Open accessPubMed 42893162Populations