medRxiv · Jun 30, 2026

Prognostic value of plasma brain-derived pTau

By Ghisays V, Denkinger MN, Singh A et al.

BACKGROUND: Plasma brain-derived pTau217 (BD-pTau217) may provide a Alzheimer's disease-specific plasma tau measure than total pTau217, but its prognostic value is unclear. We compared BD-pTau217 and total plasma pTau217 for predicting clinical and amyloid PET progression in cognitively unimpaired (CU) ADNI participants. METHODS: Plasma NULISAseq biomarkers were measured in 1,427 ADNI participants, including 529 CU individuals. Amyloid PET progression was assessed in baseline CU amyloid-negative participants (Centiloid ≥24.1) with longitudinal PET imaging; clinical progression was assessed in all baseline CU participants. Associations were evaluated using Cox models and time-dependent AUC. RESULTS: BD-pTau217 did not clearly outperform total pTau217 for predicting progression to mild cognitive impairment or dementia. However, among baseline amyloid-negative participants (N=175), BD-pTau217 better predicted amyloid PET positivity at 2.5 years (tdAUC 0.82 vs 0.69; HR=10.54, p=0.00015) and 4 years (tdAUC 0.77 vs 0.64; HR=7.03, p=0.00055). CONCLUSION: BD-pTau217 improved prediction of near-term amyloid PET progression, with less clear advantage for clinical progression.

doi.org/10.64898/2026.06.26.26356597Open accessPubMed 42428054Biomarkers