Geriatric Nursing · May 16, 2025

Derivation of clinical prediction rules for assessing fall risk among community-dwelling older adults: A prospective cohort study

By Amano T

This prospective cohort study aimed to derive clinical prediction rules (CPRs) to assess fall risk within 1 year of a baseline measurement and identify fall-risk subgroups in community-dwelling older adults. Data from 129 community-dwelling older adults aged ≥60 years were analyzed. CPRs were derived for participants who completed the 1-year follow-up (main analysis) and those without a fall history in the past year (subanalysis). When the total CPR score was 3 points (age ≥77 years; fall history, yes; one-leg standing test [OLST] ≤3.8 s), the positive likelihood ratio was 13.35, and the fall rate increased from 31.0 % to 85.7 % in the main analysis. When the total CPR score was 2 points (body mass index ≥23.3 kg/m²; OLST ≤3.9 s), the positive likelihood ratio was 17.65; the fall rate increased from 23.8 % to 84.6 % in the subanalysis. These CPRs can be used to identify fall-risk subgroups among community-dwelling older adults.

doi.org/10.1016/j.gerinurse.2025.04.015PubMed 40382239Biomarkers