Journal of the American Geriatrics Society · Jul 18, 2019
Recurrent Measurement of Frailty Is Important for Mortality Prediction: Findings from the North West Adelaide Health Study
By Thompson MQ, Theou O, Tucker GR et al.
OBJECTIVES: Frailty places individuals at greater risk of adverse health outcomes. However, it is a dynamic condition and may not always lead to decline. Our objective was to determine the relationship between frailty status (at baseline and follow-up) and mortality using both the frailty phenotype (FP) and frailty index (FI). DESIGN: Population-based cohort. SETTING: Community-dwelling older adults. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 909 individuals aged 65 years or older (55% female), mean age 74.4 (SD 6.2) years, had frailty measurement at baseline. Overall, 549 participants had frailty measurement at two time points. MEASUREMENTS: Frailty was measured using the FP and FI, with a mean 4.5 years between baseline and follow-up. Mortality was matched to official death records with a minimum of 10 years of follow-up. RESULTS: For both measures, baseline frailty was a significant predictor of mortality up to 10 years, with initially good predictive ability (area under the curve [AUC] = .8-.9) decreasing over time. Repeated measurement at follow-up resulted in good prediction compared with lower (AUC = .6-.7) discrimination of equivalent baseline frailty status. In a multivariable model, frailty measurement at follow-up was a stronger predictor of mortality compared with baseline. Frailty change for the Continuous FI was a significant predictor of decreased or increased mortality risk based on corresponding improvement or worsening of score (hazard ratio = 1.04; 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.07; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty measurement is a good predictor of mortality up to 10 years; however, recency of frailty measurement is important for improved prediction. A regular review of frailty status is required in older adults. J Am Geriatr Soc 67:2311-2317, 2019.