Preprint · Sep 11, 2025
Health Outcomes of Older Adults in Libya Following the Derna floods: A Propensity Score Matching Study of Flood-Affected and Unaffected Populations
By Li X, Alameen A, Alagaili R et al.
In September 2023, Storm Daniel struck northeastern Libya, causing severe flooding, widespread destruction, and substantial loss of life. In the aftermath, the health and well-being of older adults have been a major concern for researchers and policymakers. However, little empirical evidence exists regarding the post-disaster health outcomes of older adults affected by this natural disaster. This study aims to first compare the health status of older adults who were affected by the flood to those who were unaffected using Inverse Probability of Treatment Weighting, approximately 1.5 years after the disaster, and then examine the impact of primary and secondary stressors on health outcomes among flood-affected older adults, identifying potential risk and protective factors. Results suggested that, for most health outcomes, there were no significant differences between the affected and unaffected groups. Notably, older adults who experienced the flood reported significantly lower levels of loneliness and better psychological health-related quality of life, suggesting effective recovery and strong resilience. However, injuries, the loss of close family members or friends, and structural damage to homes were significantly associated with poorer health and well-being. However, some counterintuitive findings also emerged, with certain stressors showing associations with better post-disaster health outcomes. In sum, our findings provide support for the inoculation/maturation hypothesis and challenge common assumptions about older adults’ vulnerability in disaster contexts.