Cihan University-Erbil Scientific Journal · Mar 10, 2026

Shifting Paradigm in the Incidence of Postmenopausal Breast Cancer in Sulaimani in 10 Years Period

By Rasul NA, Saeed KA

Breast cancer (BC) remains the most common malignancy among women worldwide, with postmenopausal women accounting for a substantial proportion of cases; however, data on long-term incidence trends and molecular subtype patterns in Iraqi Kurdistan remain limited. This study evaluated 10-year incidence trends of postmenopausal BC in Sulaimani, Iraq, and characterized associated demographic factors and molecular subtype distributions. A cross-sectional study was conducted using clinical records from Hiwa Cancer Hospital and Zhianawa Hospital between 2015 and 2024. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) were calculated, and temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis to estimate annual percent change (APC). Demographic, clinical, and molecular characteristics, including estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), and Ki-67 based immunohistochemical subtypes (Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2-enriched, and Triple Negative), were analyzed in a representative sample of postmenopausal BC patients. The ASIR of BC increased from 119.1/100,000 in 2015 to 164.0/100,000 in 2024, reflecting a 37.8% overall rise. Joinpoint regression identified a marked increase between 2015 and 2017 (APC = +10.24%), followed by a plateau from 2017 to 2024 (APC = +0.02%). Women aged 55–64 years constituted the largest proportion of postmenopausal cases, with evidence of a shift toward younger postmenopausal age groups over time. Obesity was highly prevalent among patients. Luminal B was the predominant molecular subtype, while HER2-enrichedand triple-negative subtypes declined significantly across the study period. In conclusion, postmenopausal BC incidence in Sulaimani has increased over the past decade, with recent stabilization and a shift toward hormone receptor-positive molecular subtypes. These findings underscore the importance of strengthening early detection strategies, addressing modifiable risk factors, and optimizing subtype-guided management to improve BC outcomes in the region.

doi.org/10.24086/cuesj.v10n1y2026.pp40-48Open accessPopulations