AHA Scientific Sessions 2026 Abstract · Nov 2, 2026
Global Trends and Projections of Cardiovascular Disease Burden Through 2050, A Benchmarking Analysis of Regional, Demographic, and Risk-Attributable Patterns
By Vummaneni S, SAMI SA, Vanteru SA et al.
Background: Projections of cardiovascular disease (CVD) integrating global burden, demographic heterogeneity, and risk-attributable trends are limited. We quantified historical trends and projected future CVD burden through 2050. Long-range projections are essential to anticipate future cardiovascular disease burden and guide early prevention, cardiometabolic risk control, and health-system planning from the ground level. Methods: We analyzed Global Burden of Disease 2023 data for CVD DALYs and incidence, 1990-2023. Available data included global burden, 12 region/SDI groupings, age strata (<20, 20-54, 55+ years), sex, major CVD subtypes, and DALYs attributable to metabolic, behavioral, and environmental risks. Historical annual percentage change (APC) was estimated by log-linear regression. Forecasts for 2024-2050 used weighted log-linear models emphasizing recent trends; projected APCs were summarized for 2026-2050 with 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). Results: Global CVD DALYs rose from 320.1 million in 1990 to 436.2 million in 2023 (+36.3%; APC +0.85%/year) and are projected to reach 539.1 million by 2050 (95% UI 504.3-568.5 million; projected APC +0.89%). In contrast, the global age-standardized DALY rate fell from 8061.6 to 4863.8 per 100,000 from 1990-2023 (–39.7%; APC –1.65%) and is projected to decline further to 3028.5 per 100,000 by 2050 (95% UI 2806.1-3214.9; projected APC –1.64%). In 2023, the highest age-standardized DALY rates were in North Africa/Middle East (7342.6), Central/Eastern Europe-Central Asia (7037.0), and Low SDI (6807.4). By 2050, age-standardized DALY rates were projected to decline in all 12 locations, most steeply in High SDI (–2.55%), High-income (–2.38%), and Southeast/East Asia-Oceania (–2.15%), but minimally in Low SDI (–0.13%), South Asia (–0.24%), and Sub-Saharan Africa (–0.29%). Incidence rates were projected to rise in 10 out of 12 locations, led by Southeast/East Asia-Oceania (+1.88%), High-middle SDI (+1.61%), and South Asia (+1.16%). Metabolic-risk DALYs showed the fastest projected growth, especially in South Asia (+3.07%), Low SDI (+3.07%), and Sub-Saharan Africa (+2.95%). Ischemic heart disease and stroke remained the leading 2023 contributors (2128.6 and 1737.1 per 100,000), while atrial fibrillation/flutter was the only subtype with a projected increase in age-standardized DALY rate (+0.08%). Conclusion: Through 2050, global CVD will be marked by rising absolute burden despite falling age-standardized DALY rates, with widening regional divergence and growth of metabolically attributable burden in South Asia and lower-SDI settings. These projections provide a forward-looking framework to act before the burden peaks, supporting early investment in primordial prevention, metabolic-risk reduction, and region-specific CVD care capacity.