ESC Congress 2026 Abstract · Oct 26, 2026
Global cardiovascular risk prediction model in the Cuban population
By Armas Rojas N, Ross S, Lewington S et al.
Background: Cuba lacks population-specific tools to estimate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, despite a substantial burden of CVD. A locally derived model could improve risk stratification and support prevention strategies tailored to the Cuban context. Objectives: To develop and internally validate a model estimating 10-year absolute CVD mortality risk in the Cuban population. Methods: We analyzed 119,014 adults without prior CVD from the Cuba Prospective Study (n=146,556). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate 10-year CVD mortality risk. Candidate predictors included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, body mass index, alcohol consumption, and educational level. Backward elimination guided variable selection. Model performance was assessed through discrimination (c-statistic) and calibration. Predicted survival trajectories from age 40 to 80 were used to estimate absolute risk. Results: Over 1.16 million person-years of follow-up, 2,999 CVD deaths occurred. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, smoking, and education remained independently associated with CVD mortality. The model showed strong discrimination (c-statistic 0.815) and good calibration. Conclusions: We developed and internally validated a CVD risk score tailored to Cuba, providing a population-specific tool to estimate 10-year absolute CVD mortality risk and support primary prevention decision-making.