European Journal of Cancer · Nov 9, 2026

Liver cancer incidence trends in younger versus older adults over time: an analysis of population-based cancer registry data

By Rumgay H, Laversanne M, McGlynn KA et al.

Background Liver cancer epidemiology is evolving, yet age-specific patterns remain poorly characterized. We aimed to assess variation in age-specific liver cancer incidence trends based on population-based cancer registry data. Methods We extracted annual liver cancer incidence (1978–2017) for 47 countries from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) were compared over time and over the most recent decade for three age-groups (15–49, 50–69, 70+) using Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) in 38 populations. Findings From 1978 to 2017, ASRs declined in high-incidence countries in Eastern and South-Eastern Asia but increased in low-incidence countries across Northern America, Australia/New Zealand, and Northern Europe. During 2008–2017, ASRs among younger adults (15–49) declined in 11 of 38 male populations (EAPC -10.0% in France) and in females in the Republic of Korea (-3.7%) and China (-2.6%). In older adults (50–69 and 70+), ASRs declined in high-incidence countries (Republic of Korea, Japan, China) during 2008–2017, while increasing in 15 male populations and 11 female populations (age 50–69) and in 12 male populations and 10 female populations (age 70+), mostly in Northern and Western Europe and Northern America. Overall, trends in hepatocellular carcinoma and cholangiocarcinoma were heterogeneous across countries, with interpretation limited by substantial variation in histologically unspecified cases. Interpretation Rising liver cancer rates among older adults in historically low-incidence countries might suggest a shift from infectious to noncommunicable causes. In contrast, declines in younger adults in historically high-incidence countries may signal the positive impact of hepatitis and aflatoxin control. Strengthened, targeted prevention remains essential to prevent liver cancer globally.

doi.org/10.1016/j.ejca.2026.118174PubMed 43014141Populations